SCENARIOS FOR SOCIAL AND STATISTICAL DESIGN FOR SAFETY

Single discipline educational activity

Course Sheet

Course code:

SPSSS

Academic Year of enrolment:

2019

Year of supply:

2019/2020

Type of Course:

Characterising

Degree:

Course of 2nd Cycle Degree in SOCIAL RESEARCH, SECURITY POLICY AND CRIMINAL STUDIES

Disciplinary Sector:

Social Statistics

Location:

CHIETI

Credits:

Programme Year:

Professor and Collaborators:

PACINELLI Antonio

Cycle:

First semester

Hours of classroom activity:

Individual study hours:

153

Prerequisites:

Elements of Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

Objectives

The course pursues the objective of providing students with the concepts relating to social statistics, with particular reference to social forecasts, the participatory planning of social futures and security statistics.
Students will therefore learn the logical foundations of the various types of forecasts/foresight and in-depth subjective foresight, a fundamental prerequisite for scenario design. Then they will know the main types of scenarios (regulatory, exploratory and planning scenario) and the main techniques for their construction. How to analyze the present of a social system, how the trajectories towards the future are constructed, what the main actors of the system are, and how they define their objectives, how to survey the key variables and, finally, how to develop the scenarios, are the skills that will be acquired by the students.
Finally, students will develop skills related to reading and interpreting security data and statistics.

Contents

The scenarios are based on data, both objective and subjective, organized in a research design for the future. The course, after an introduction to the study of the future, in the first part deals with both objective and subjective forecasts. In the context of the latter, the forecasting techniques that lead to the construction of both social in general and security scenarios are dealt with. In this context, participation plays a fundamental role, so different methods of participation will be discussed. On the side of the future, the importance of the scenarios in participatory social planning is highlighted, with particular reference to the regulatory scenario and the "desires" contained therein. Furthermore, the methods for the participatory survey of the needs and the "desired" will be exposed, for the convergence of opinions, for the participatory analysis of the impacts, for the realization of participatory observatories, and for the e-participation. Finally, the course will focus on the issues of security data, security statistics and related official sources.

Extended Syllabus

Introduction: detection and estimation of needs and desired
- Censuses
- The non-probabilistic sampling design
- The probabilistic sampling design
- Review of sampling from a statistical experiment
- Sampling from finite populations: extractions with constant and variable probabilities
- Sampling from finite populations: estimators of the total

Module 1: Scenarios for social planning.
1) Introduction to forecasts
- The logical foundations of the forecast
- The "political relevance" of social forecasts
- The movement of social indicators
- Data sources for forecasts (objective and subjective)
- The design of research on the future

2) Approaches to objective forecasts
- The demographic approach
- The Markovian approach
- The econometric approach
- The classical approach to the analysis of time series (decomposition)
- The modern approach to the analysis of time series (extrapolation)

3) Approaches to subjective forecasts
- The logical foundations of the subjective approach to forecasts. The remarks of De Finetti
- From the "Conjectures" of de Jouvenel to the "Futures Studies"
- Rand's approach and expert methods
- The impact-based approach: event impact, cross-impact and trend impact
- Integration of forecasting/foresight techniques
- The exploratory scenario and its construction

4) Scenarios
- The scenario. Definitions and approaches
- The Exploratory scenario
- The Normative scenario
- The Planning scenario
- Evaluation of the scenarios

5) The participatory planning of the social future
- Participation in public decision-making. Technical, Mediated and Direct (passive and active)
- Methods that favor shared decisions. The convergence of opinions
- The classic methods for participation
- Electronic methods for participation
- The information status of community representatives. A limit to representative democracy
- The adherence between the exploratory and regulatory scenario. The tactical corrections of the design scenario
- Overview of support systems for group decisions and decision-making rooms

Module 2: Security statistics
1. Introduction. Terminology and perception of the seriousness of the crimes
1a) From the crime to the crime event.
1b) The gravity of the crime and its perception
1c) The Selling and Wolfgang index

2) Security data.
2a) The prefectural survey model on the reported crimes
2b) Data on fire conflicts
2c) Data on terrorism

3) Security statistics.
3a) Istat statistics
3b) Time series statistics
3c) Territorial series statistics

4) Security scenarios
4a) Gravity and desired in the regulatory scenario
4b) Extrapolations (forecasting) and imaginative (foresight) in the exploratory scenario
4c) The planning scenario on security

Recommended Bibliography

- Pacinelli A. Metodi per la ricerca sociale partecipata, F. Angeli, Milano, 2008.
- Di Zio S., Pacinelli A. Statistica sociale, Mondadori editore, 2015.
- Pacinelli A. La delittuosità in Italia, Editrice dell’Università, Pescara, 2004.
- Di Zio S, Fontanella L., Pacinelli A. (A cura di), Contributi alla costruzione di scenari su criminalità e terrorismo, F. Angeli Ed., Milano, 2019
- Glenn J. e Gordon T., (a cura). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. Millennium Project,
Paperback, Washington, D.C., 2012.
- Additional teaching material and notes provided on the platform http://elearning.unich.it.

Teaching Methods

The course consists of classroom lessons and exercises. Attendance to teaching activities is not mandatory.

Evaluation methods

Verification of learning:

The exam consists of an oral interview, with a single final mark in thirtieths.

Università degli Studi
"G. d'Annunzio"

Chieti - Pescara

Aree